Bulent Gokay*
In the wake of Trump’s victory in the recent 2024 US Presidential elections, there has been a noticeable rise in discussions surrounding the concept of multipolarity and the notion of “American disengagement” from Europe. This theme is prominently featured in the latest Munich Security Report 2025, which asserts that “the US may be abdicating its historic role as Europe’s security guarantor.” I concur with this assessment of American disengagement; however, it is essential to recognize that this is not a new development. Rather, it has been an ongoing trend for several decades, predating the second Trump administration.
The current deep uncertainty and global crisis did not arise unexpectedly; rather, they are direct consequences of the structural changes and entrenched contradictions that have developed within the international system since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the late 1960s. This phenomenon is often referred to as the Global Shift—a transformation in the hegemonic structures of the world system, which is moving away from North America and Western Europe toward the emerging powers of Asia, as well as those in South America and South Africa. This shift underpins the disintegration of the “hub-and-spoke” system of global imperial governance, established under U.S. hegemony, which connected Europe, North America, Japan, and Australasia—a process that began in the late 1960s (Gowan, 2003).
The extended period of hegemonic transition from the Euro-Atlantic core to Asian economies, particularly China and India, reflects historical transitions marked by instability, aptly described by Antonio Gramsci as a time when “the old is dying, and the new cannot be born.” This situation gives rise to what can be referred to as “morbid symptoms,” which are evident in rising financialization and the emergence of authoritarian and discriminatory policies. Both Europe and the United States are witnessing the rise of new forms of authoritarianism. In this context, those in power—who often present themselves as “liberal democratic” leaders—are implementing stringent austerity measures that have a profound impact on their societies. This toxic environment has, in turn, created a fertile ground for racism and xenophobia, as communities struggle with the repercussions of economic hardship and social division.
The gradual decline of hegemony and the unravelling of the Euro-Atlantic alliance did not begin with the rise of right-wing authoritarian leaders like Trump in the United States. Rather, this intricate phenomenon is deeply embedded within the broader context of the current global system and the historical fluctuations of power dynamics. It highlights a significant global shift, emphasising the complex architecture of power that has shaped our world. As established powers diminish, new forces emerge, challenging traditional alliances and redefining the landscape of global governance. As expressed clearly by Peter Dicken, “old geographies of production, distribution and consumption are continuously being disrupted and that new geographies and continuously being created. In that sense, the global economic map is always in a state of ‘becoming’; it is never finished” (Dicken, 2007: 32).
President Trump’s decision to arrange for a U.S. delegation to meet with the Russian delegation in Saudi Arabia has sparked concern and disappointment among European leaders. Nevertheless, Trump’s “America First” policy reflects a pragmatic approach, acknowledging Russia as a significant military power and China as an influential economic force. Given the current conflict in Ukraine and the Western sanctions imposed on Russia, the strengthening of ties between Russia and China has become evident. Therefore, pursuing a strategy of appeasing Russia regarding Ukraine could be an effective means to reduce its reliance on China. Ultimately, the new U.S. administration appears to have made a calculated choice to engage directly with Russia, thereby bypassing Europe and Ukraine in the quest for peace in the region.
It appears that Trump’s strategy regarding the Russian leadership involves granting Putin a degree of international respectability and restoring Russia’s place in the G7, effectively reverting it to the G-8 as it was prior to 2014. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s remarks, emphasizing the “incredible opportunities that exist to partner with the Russians” both geopolitically and economically, suggest that economic interests are a primary focus of Trump’s policy toward Russia. (Politico, 2025)
The future of global politics and economics is becoming increasingly clear: it will not be dictated solely by Euro-American powers. A new international system is emerging, shaped by rising actors from the Global South. As the Western world experiences a decline in its dominance, these new powers are striving to establish an alternative global power structure. However, they currently lack the capacity to exert significant influence over various regional and international conflicts. As wars and conflicts erupt across the landscapes of the Middle East, the territories of Africa, the regions of Ukraine, and the nations of Southeast Asia, the authority of the West seems to diminish with each passing day. While these emerging powers—brimming with ambition and a desire for a more equitable world order—endeavour to reshape global dynamics, they find themselves still lacking the capacity to decisively influence or resolve the complex and deeply rooted disputes that plague these regions.
References
Dicken, Peter (2007) The Global Shift: Mapping the Changing Contours of the World Economy, Sage.
Gowan, Peter (2003) “UN: US”, New Left Review, November/December 2003, https://newleftreview.org/issues/ii24/articles/peter-gowan-us-un.
Hass, Ryan (2025) “Can Trump Seize the Moment on China?”, Brookings, 28 January, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/can-trump-seize-the-moment-on-china/
Hobsbawm, Eric (1994) The Age of Extremes, Abacus.
Munich Security Report 2025, https://securityconference.org/en/publications/munich-security-report-2025/foreword/
Politico (2025) 18 February, https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-nightly/2025/02/18/the-astonishing-u-s-russia-meeting-00204765
Bulent Gokay is Professor of International Relations at Keele University, UK. He is the author (and co-author) of many books on global politics and human security, including 11 September 2001: War, Terror and Judgement (with R.B.J. Walker, 2003), The New American Imperialism: Bush’s War on Terror and Blood for Oil (with Vassilis Fouskas, 2005), Soviet Eastern Policy and Turkey (2006) and Human Costs of War (with Lily Hamourtziadou, 2024).
